Thursday, September 4, 2014

Box Office Predictions: Guardians Will Win Again On Worst Weekend of 2014

Well, it's a quiet weekend, to put it gently. In fact, I'm gonna make a wild guess that this becomes one of the worst box office weekends in the 21st century. The only major new wide release is The Identical, which is taking advantage of the slow weekend by opening in 1950 theaters.
Will it find success? Probably not. Promotion is minimal and even appealing to the faith crowd probably won't work here since the story (about Elvis twin brother) isn't specifically faith related. This should bomb, and then never heard from again until critics start compiling their "Worst of 2014" lists.The only other new release generating any kind of hype is the IMAX rerelease of Forrest Gump. Why Paramount Pictures isn't taking advantage of the movies massive popularity and the dearth of compelling options at the box office and putting this beloved movie into all theaters instead of just IMAX locations is befuddling, but it should perform like past IMAX reissues of classic Paramount Pictures movie; decently.

Guardians of The Galaxy should have another easy weekend on top, which means it will become the first movie since The Hunger Games to be number one for four weekends. So anemic is the box office this weekend, The Identical may find a way into the Top 5. Both of last weeks new release should plummet, The November Man in the 50% range, while As Above, So Below will wind up below (har har) the competition with a dip in the mid-60% range. Oh! Almost forgot, Cantinflas I think is going into wide release, though an exact theater count isn't available right at this moment.

Below are my predictions not only for the opening weekend and total gross of the sole new release, but also my Top 5 predictions.

The Identical:
Opening Weekend: $4.2 million
Total Gross: $10 million

1. Guardians of The Galaxy: $9.3 million
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: $5.5 million
3. Let's Be Cops: $4.5 million
4. The Identical: $4.2 million
5. If I Stay: $4.1 million

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