October has become a great place to launch a very successful drama in recent years, with the likes of The Social Network, Captain Phillips and especially Argo proving that the month is a great place for dramatic fare. Gone Girl is the newest film hoping to prove that theory, and it should be successful in that pursuit. This one has been promoted extensively in a very distinctive manner, but really the extremely popular book that the movie is based on works as a piece of excellent marketing all on its own. Add in popular actors like Ben Affleck in the cast and the movie is a slam dunk at this point in terms of marketing.
Reviews have been fantastic for the film, and advanced ticket sales indicate massive grosses this weekend. In fact, Fandango notes it's sales at this point put it at the same level as last Octobers Gravity, which debuted to $54 million. That one had 3D and IMAX 3D ticket prices to boost its gross though, so it's unlikely for Gone Girl to hit that high of an opening. Still, I think this one hits the mid-30 million grosses and becomes one of the bigger movies of this Fall season.
The other major new release is Annabelle, the spin-off of 2013 horror movie smash hit The Conjuring. Goodwill from The Conjuring should get it a solid opening, maybe even getting to just past $30 million, but I don't think it can go much higher than that. Marketing has at least done a good job of selling new thrills and smartly emphasizing its connection to The Conjuring. This won't break out like The Conjuring did last year, but it should still solidify a new franchise for Warner Bros./New Line Cinema.
Faith based features had a pretty good start earlier in 2014, but just a few months later, box office bombs like Persecuted and The Identical have diluted this subgenre. Left Behind, an adaptation of the extremely popular book series, will attempt to reverse this trend, and it may actually accomplish that. Unlike those previously mentioned bombs, this takes a cue from 2014 faith-based hits like God's Not Dead and center its plot around something directly related to Christianity, the Rapture. Opening in 1820 theaters this weekend, this should have a decent opening and wind up being one of Nicolas Cages higher grossing movies in recent years.
The Good Lie is just missing out on a wide release this weekend by only opening in 461 theaters, though if the surprisingly terrific reviews are any indication, it may have good enough word of mouth to warrant further expansion. For now though, this should have a decent enough opening with about a $5,000 per-theater-average.
Last weeks new releases won't be hugely impacted by the new releases, though The Equalizer will probably still have dip in the high-40% range. The Boxtrolls should have a good hold this weekend, though word-of-mouth on the release was a bit softer than expected. The Maze Runner meanwhile should have another nice hold, continuing its run as a decent earner for 20th Century Fox.
Below are my predictions for the box office Top 5 this weekend, how this weekend will compare to last year and opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks four new releases.
Gone Girl
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Total Gross:$120 million
Annabelle
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total Gross: $70 million
Left Behind
Opening Weekend: $9 million
Total Gross: $28 million
The Good Lie
Opening Weekend: $2.3 million
Total Gross: $11 million
1) Gone Girl: $35 million
2) Annabelle: $30 million
3) The Equalizer: $18.2 million
4) The Boxtrolls: $11.1 million
5) The Maze Runner: $10.8 million
My prediction for the total for the Top 12 movies at this forthcoming weekends box office is $124.2 million. That would be a tremendous haul for a number of reasons; first off, it's the biggest overall weekend in 2014 since mid-August. Secondly, it'd be up 9% from last year, and finally, it'd be the 3rd biggest October weekend of all-time. We shall see if my predictions come true in any way.
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