Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions (Part One)

Well, Summer 2015 is just around the corner, and I got to thinking, why not do some box office forecasting for the wide number of releases hitting multiplexes this summer? These predictions will be split into two parts; the first one, which you're reading right now, focuses on my projections for this summers Top 10 movies, while the second part going up tomorrow centers around my predictions for this summers sleeper hits, wild cards and flops.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for Summer 2015's 10 highest grossing movies!


1. The Avengers: Age Of Ultron
The newest Avengers movie will have no trouble being the highest grossing movie of the year, the only question is how high it goes. Sequels to movies that made a ton of money have a habit for falling short of their predecessors (i.e. Iron Man 2, Harry Potter and The Chamber of Secrets). The more money the first movie makes, the smaller the increase in grosses will be when the sequel arrives. However, there are exceptions to this rule (i.e. Transformers, Pirates of The Caribbean, The Hunger Games), plus, The Avengers is a pretty beloved movie, and well received continuations like Iron Man 3 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier have kept the franchise around in a positive manner.

The best example may be another sequel to a 2012 mega-blockbuster, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. That one managed to increase 3.5% over the first Katniss adventure, and if Age Of Ultron had a similar increase, it would make $645 million. Considering how successful those aforementioned Marvel movies have been in the past two years, I'll say there's a slightly higher increase here, about 6% more than the original, that would make this the second biggest movie of all-time.

Total Gross Prediction: $660 million

2. Minions
The bad news for this franchise is that spin-off's (like Puss In Boots and The Penguins of Madagascar) always make less than the features they're extensions of. The good news for this series though is that Despicable Me is absolutely huge right now, and a movie centered on those beloved minions will be like catnip for family audiences. There will  certainly be a decrease from Despicable Me 2's $368 million gross, but this should still be a massively successful film for Universal, easily one of the biggest movies  for the studio ever.

Total Gross Prediction: $280 million

3. Inside Out
Normally, one might have concern that a two year gap between PIXAR movies has diluted the studios brand, but with a studio as beloved as PIXAR, there's no way dilution sets in over a slightly longer than usual break between films. It helps that Inside Out's trailers have done a great job selling it's "emotional" premise, while setting up memorable gags and pathos filled moments. Even with Minions around in the family movie realm this summer, Inside Out should have no problem racking up humongous grosses.

Total Gross Predictions: $275 million

4. Jurassic World
It's pretty obvious Disney and Universal are gonna own this summer, and the latter studio is gonna get a major boost from this third sequel to the 1993 classic Jurassic Park. While the first two follow ups to that feature are far from beloved, Jurassic World has distanced itself with a distinct new plot (The park is open! And going awry!) and new cast members like Chris Pratt. There's no way it can match that first movies sizable gross, but this should handily beat out the other two Jurassic Park sequels to become one of the years biggest movies.

Total Gross Predictions: $260 million
5. Ted 2
A Million Ways To Die In The West was one of the biggest bombs of last summer, but that shouldn't stop Seth Macfarlane from scoring a huge hit with Ted 2. The first movie was a word-of-mouth sensation in the summer of 2012, and this sequel promises new gags while keeping the witty dynamic between Mark Wahlberg and that foul mouthed teddy bear. Look for this one to improve on it's predecessor over the 4th of July weekend this year.

Total Gross Predictions: $245 million

6. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
This was one of the most recent additions to the Summer 2015 schedule, but Paramount Pictures is wasting no time in establishing this as one of the bigger movies of the season. Coming off Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, there's already a high amount of good buzz surrounding this franchise, but the first trailer promised new notable spy antics while promising Tom Cruise hanging from the side of a plane. This one should have no problem becoming the biggest Mission Impossible movie yet, and may just be able to beat War Of The Worlds to become the biggest movie of Tom Cruises entire career.

Total Gross Predictions: $235 million

7. Tomorrowland
Disney is smartly patterning this new Brad Bird movie off of one of last year's biggest surprise hits, Maleficent. That was another live-action Disney family movie starring a huge A-lister (Angelina Jole) released in late May. This one won't have the Sleeping Beauty brand name, but it does have the Memorial Day holiday weekend to boost it's grosses, and if word-of-mouth is even half as good as the directors past movies, this should have no problem becoming the fourth film in a row for Brad Bird to make over $200 million.

Total Gross Predictions: $220 million

8. Ant-Man
The bad news for Scott Lang and his thieving buddies is that it's pretty much assured that this new Marvel Cinematic Universe film will be one of the lower gross entries in that humongous franchise. The first teaser didn't light up the world with anticipation, and there's so much competition in the late summer that it's almost impossible for it have box office legs similar to Guardians of The Galaxy. To it's legitimate credit though, the Marvel brand name is a powerful entity, and this could easily cross $200 million if later marketing is even half as compelling as the ads for Age of Ultron.

Total Gross Predictions: $190 million
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
2015 has been a prosperous year for R-rated movies, just ask Kingsman: The Secret Service or American Sniper, and the newest Mad Max adventure should continue that trend with aplomb. Warner Bros. has been marketing this one with gangbusters trailers that make this one of the more distinctive summer blockbusters in recent memory. This is being released in the same weekend where Warner Bros. launched Godzilla to humongous success and a $90 million weekend. That might be a bit high for this one to reach, but this should still be a similarly successful endeavor.

Total Gross Predictions: $180 million

10. (TIE) Fantastic Four
This reboot of Marvel's first family had a generic first teaser and has been plagued by bad buzz, but a lot of that negative buzz, frankly, feels a bit forced and similar to the negativity that surrounded World War Z prior to that movies successful release. Opening right after Ant-Man and Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation won't do it any favors, but look for this one to post solid late summer grosses similar to another 20th Century Fox released reboot released in August, Rise of The Planet of The Apes.
Trainwreck
There's always one big comedy that breaks out each summer, and Amy Schumer's leading role debut seems like the most likely candidate to be this summer's comedic sleeper hit. The first trailer brought a number of memorable gags, and the supporting cast is full of well known and well liked names (Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, LeBron James). Expect this one to have solid stamina at the box office to become one of the bigger movies of the summer.

Toal Gross Predictions: $165 million

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